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Reviews: "Contact Tracing Efficiency, Transmission Heterogeneity, and Accelerating COVID-19 Epidemics"

Reviewers: L White (Boston University) | 📗📗📗📗◻️

Published onMar 03, 2022
Reviews: "Contact Tracing Efficiency, Transmission Heterogeneity, and Accelerating COVID-19 Epidemics"
key-enterThis Pub is a Review of
Contact tracing efficiency, transmission heterogeneity, and accelerating COVID-19 epidemics
Description

AbstractSimultaneously controlling COVID-19 epidemics and limiting economic and societal impacts presents a difficult challenge, especially with limited public health budgets. Testing, contact tracing, and isolating/quarantining is a key strategy that has been used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. However, manual contact tracing is a time-consuming process and as case numbers increase it takes longer to reach each cases’ contacts, leading to additional virus spread. Delays between symptom onset and being tested (and receiving results), and a low fraction of symptomatic cases being tested and traced can also reduce the impact of contact tracing on transmission. We examined the relationship between cases and delays and the pathogen reproductive number Rt, and the implications for infection dynamics using a stochastic compartment model of SARS-CoV-2. We found that Rt increases sigmoidally with the number of cases due to decreasing contact tracing efficacy. This relationship results in accelerating epidemics because Rt increases, rather than declines, as infections increase. Shifting contact tracers from locations with high and low case burdens relative to capacity to locations with intermediate case burdens maximizes their impact in reducing Rt (but minimizing total infections is more complicated). Contact tracing efficacy also decreased with increasing delays between symptom onset and tracing and with lower fraction of symptomatic infections being tested. Finally, testing and tracing reductions in Rt can sometimes greatly delay epidemics due to the highly heterogeneous transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. These results demonstrate the importance of having an expandable or mobile team of contact tracers that can be used to control surges in cases, and the value of easy access, high testing capacity and rapid turn-around of testing results, as well as outreach efforts to encourage symptomatic infections to be tested immediately after symptom onset.Author SummaryA key tool in the control of infectious diseases is contact tracing – the identification of individuals who have contacted the case and may have been infected by a newly detected case. However, to successfully contact and quarantine individuals requires time, and as cases rise, this can result in delays in reaching contacts during which time they may infect other people. Here we examine the quantitative relationships between increasing case numbers, contact tracing efficiency, and the pathogen reproductive number Rt (the number of cases infected by each case) and how these relationships vary with delays and incomplete participation in the testing and tracing process. We built

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Reviewer 1 (Laura W…) | 📗📗📗📗◻️

RR:C19 Strength of Evidence Scale Key

📕 ◻️◻️◻️◻️ = Misleading

📙📙 ◻️◻️◻️ = Not Informative

📒📒📒 ◻️◻️ = Potentially Informative

📗📗📗📗◻️ = Reliable

📘📘📘📘📘 = Strong

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